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Radiation Physics Constraints on Global Warming

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NOTE: A REVISED VERSION OF THIS ARTICLE EXISTS
"Radiation Physics Constraints on Global Warming - Revised"
Posted May 12, 2011: http://climateguy.blogspot.com/2011/05/radiation-physics-constraints-on-global_12.html (And available here on the present page as the 182.8 K PDF file, left column)

ALSO, A FURTHER MOST COMPLETE June 3, 2011, NEW ARTICLE FOLLOWING THE LATTER REVISED VERSION IS AVAILABLE AT A DIFFERENT LINK:
http://climateguy.blogspot.com/2011/06/radiation-physics-constraints-on-global.html


Radiation Physics Constraints on Global Warming
By Denis G. Rancourt

First published here:
http://activistteacher.blogspot.com/2011/05/radiation-physics-constraints-on-global.html

Abstract â I describe the basic physics of planetary radiation balance and surface temperature, in the simplest and most robust terms possible that capture the essential ingredients of planetary greenhouse warming. I show that the often repeated textbook and scientific report view that the Earthâs surface temperature would be â19oC in the absence of a planetary greenhouse effect (a 33oC greenhouse effect difference) is wrong; and that an accepted calculation of the âlongwave radiative forcingâ by atmospheric greenhouse gases is also wrong. Our simple radiation-balance model â using only (i) the satellite-measured absolute longwave Earth emission, (ii) a present mean global surface temperature of 14oC, (iii) the satellite-measured fraction of longwave absorbance due to CO2, (iv) a satellite-measured global mean surface albedo of 0.30, (v) the season-average solar constant and (vi) Kirchoffâs Law â predicts: (a) a total longwave emission atmospheric mean transmittance of {te} = 0.89, (b) a zero-greenhouse-effect Earth mean surface temperature of To = 5.5oC, (c) a global mean surface emission intensity of 269 W/m2, (d) a post-industrial warming due only to CO2 increase of ÎTind = 0.56oC, (e) a temperature increase from doubling the present CO2 concentration alone (without water vapour feedback) equal to ÎTdbl = 2.0oC. Earthâs radiative balance determining its surface temperature is shown to be one order of magnitude more sensitive to solar irradiance and to planetary albedo/emissivity than to all atmospheric greenhouse effects combined. All the model predictions robustly follow from the starting assumptions without any need for elaborate global circulation models. A recent critique of the dominant climate change science narrative is evaluated in the light of our model.


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